Skip to main content
Back to home

Intelligence Briefs

Forecasts we published before the event — and what happened after.

Apr 12, 2026 Case Study

We said ignore the ceasefire.

We called the Hormuz ceasefire three weeks early — and said it would be operationally meaningless. Cape contracts held. Seven forecasts verified after 25 days.

Read the verification
Mar 2, 2026 Signal Brief

The Hormuz Brief

We modeled what a Hormuz closure triggers: carrier halts, Cape reroutes, port overloads, and a freight spike that hits every continent.

Read the brief

New briefs land as disruptions form. Subscribe to get the next one first →