Strikes hit Iran on February 28, closing the Strait of Hormuz.
But the ports that would absorb the shock were already failing.
Rotterdam was backing up.
Shenzhen had 50 ships waiting.
Carriers had blanked 63 sailings in February alone — more than double January.
Storm Leo and a dockworkers’ strike had shut ports across Europe the same month.
Port Stress Heatmap · Feb 1–26 pre-strike
DegradedNormalNo data
02 · Then Everything Closed
On Feb 28, Hormuz closed. Suez followed within hours.
Panama and the Baltic were already degraded.
HormuzCLOSEDFive vessels attacked: MKD Vyom, Skylight, Hercules Star, Ocean Electra, Stena Imperative. None sunk. Two crew killed. Jebel Ali hit; DP World suspended.
Suez / Red SeaSUSPENDEDHouthis resumed attacks Feb 28. First strike confirmed Mar 1. Volumes already 60% below normal before resumption.
BalticDISRUPTEDWorst freeze in 15 years. Patrushev threatening counter-seizures of EU vessels.
MalaccaOPENOnly corridor still open. Piracy: 108 incidents in 2025, +74% YoY.
03 · No Fallback Left
Major carriers halted India–Gulf bookings immediately.
Hundreds of ships are now trapped, rerouting, or idling.
Cape diversions have absorbed ~2 million TEU — roughly 8% of the global fleet.
Insurance is now the binding constraint.
Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I, American Club, and MS&AD
issued 72-hour cancellation notices Mar 1.
They take effect March 5.
Jebel Ali — the region’s largest port — took a direct missile hit.
US- and Israeli-linked ships cannot get Gulf coverage at any price.
Others face premiums reportedly at $750k per transit.
Underwriters will need weeks to re-enter even if fighting stops today.
The China–Iran CM-302 missile deal was advancing pre-strike — its range covers the entire Strait from shore.
If delivered, Gulf routing risk turns permanent.
04 · What We’re Watching
Leading indicators that would signal the crisis is shifting — before official announcements.
Operational
Fujairah Bunker SalesShips stage here before entering the Strait. A bunker sales uptick signals resumption 48–72 hrs before announcements.
Rotterdam Berth WaitsCape reroutes add 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages. That cargo arrives early March into an overloaded port.
Blank Sailing AccelerationBlanking beyond Gulf services to Asia–Europe loops means the crunch goes global. Watch Gemini and Ocean Alliance.
Cascade Data ReversingPTP, Colombo, Singapore anchorage counts declining would signal the system is clearing. Not yet.
Political / Diplomatic
Oman Back-ChannelMuscat mediates every Iran–West deal. Diplomatic flight spikes precede de-escalation by 2–3 weeks.
IRGC vs. Transitional CouncilPost-Khamenei power structure is fractured. Divergence between Council and IRGC messaging on Hormuz reveals who controls reopening.
Chinese-Flagged TransitsIf Chinese-flagged vessels transit without incident, Beijing has secured an exemption. The first passage signals de facto partial reopening.
Gulf Airline SchedulesEmirates, Etihad, Kuwait Airways grounded after airport strikes. Routes returning signals Gulf state confidence ahead of political statements.
Financial / Market
Brent–Dubai SpreadIsolates Gulf-specific risk from global oil moves. Spread compressing while Brent stays high means the market is pricing reopening early.
AG Freight FuturesForward rates for AG–Rotterdam and AG–Far East. When 30–60 day forwards drop, shipping desks expect reopening weeks out.
Lloyd’s Syndicate QuotingWhich syndicates write Gulf hull cover, at what rate. Predicts reopening weeks before political signals.
Iranian Rial Black MarketTehran’s pain threshold. When the rial collapses on the unofficial market, the blockade costs Iran more than it gains. Pressure to reopen turns internal.